Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve according to the asset which has the best performance in 2026 among Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500 with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the year for each asset. The percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on January 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET to the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for Bitcoin will be Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT in the chart with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar and the mouse on the candle for the relevant minute (the “time tools” selection may be used to view historical candles). The percentage change in Gold will be calculated by comparing the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by MarketWatch. The resolution source for Gold will be MarketWatch, specifically the close values reported for Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) under “Historical Quotes” at https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gc00. The percentage change in the S&P 500 will be calculated by comparing the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by Yahoo Finance. The resolution source for the S&P 500 will be Yahoo Finance, specifically the Close values published by Yahoo Finance for S&P 500 Index (^SPX) at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history/. If two or more listed assets have exactly the same performance for 2026, this market will resolve according to the asset whose name, as listed in the title of this market, comes first alphabetically (e.g. if Bitcoin and Gold tie, this market will resolve to Bitcoin). Only closing prices will be used for all calculations; total return measures will not be applied. If either of the relevant trading days are shortened, the official closing price published for that session will be used. If any relevant day lacks a specified closing price, the last valid historical closing price offered by the resolution source will be used.

Gold is the heaviest-backed outcome in this three-way prediction market comparing Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500's percentage price performance across the full calendar year 2026. The market is broadly distributed across all three outcomes, with no single asset commanding a dominant share. Resolution is based on which asset posts the highest percentage price gain from the start to the end of 2026, with specific closing prices drawn from Binance, MarketWatch, and Yahoo Finance respectively.

Market structure

Three outcomes — Bitcoin, Gold, and S&P 500 — with volume broadly distributed rather than heavily concentrated on any single asset. Gold leads as the heaviest-backed outcome, followed by the S&P 500, with Bitcoin the least backed. Resolution compares percentage price change across the full 2026 calendar year using closing prices from three designated sources. A tiebreaker applies alphabetical order by asset name. Deadline is 31 December 2026.

Background

The contest between Bitcoin, gold, and equities is one of finance's most debated allocation questions, particularly in periods of macroeconomic uncertainty. Gold has historically served as a store of value and inflation hedge, and entered 2025 having posted strong multi-year gains amid central bank buying and geopolitical tension. The S&P 500 reflects the performance of the broad US equity market, shaped by corporate earnings, interest rate policy, and economic growth. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation, has exhibited high volatility relative to both other assets, with its price driven by adoption cycles, regulatory developments, and macro sentiment. All three assets performed prominently in recent years, making direct annual comparisons a frequently searched topic for investors and analysts seeking to understand capital flows and relative store-of-value dynamics heading into 2026.

Key factors

The Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory will bear on all three assets: rate cuts tend to favour equities and Bitcoin whilst also supporting gold if real yields fall. Persistent inflation or a resurgence of inflationary pressure could reinforce gold's relative position. US equity market performance will be shaped by corporate earnings growth, technology sector momentum, and any recession signals. Bitcoin's annual return is historically sensitive to its own halving cycle — the April 2024 halving may continue to exert upward supply pressure into 2026 — as well as spot ETF inflows, regulatory clarity, and broader risk appetite. Gold is influenced by central bank reserve accumulation, currency weakness (particularly US dollar direction), and demand from emerging market buyers. Geopolitical shocks or financial stress events could rapidly shift relative performance across all three. Because the market measures percentage change rather than absolute levels, a single asset experiencing a sharp late-year move could alter the outcome significantly even after eleven months of trading.

FAQ