Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The Extended token launch FDV market tracks whether Extended's fully diluted valuation will exceed specified thresholds one day after its token goes live. Volume in this Polymarket structure is most heavily concentrated at the lower thresholds, with the $150M and $300M brackets attracting the broadest backing. Resolution depends on the token price multiplied by total supply at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, sourced from the most liquid market available.

Market structure

The market presents seven outcome brackets — $150M, $300M, $500M, $800M, $1B, $2B, and $3B — each resolving independently as a yes/no question on whether Extended's FDV exceeds that figure one day post-launch. Volume is heavily concentrated at the lower thresholds and thins sharply toward the higher brackets. If Extended does not launch a publicly tradable token by 31 December 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all brackets resolve No. Resolution source is the most liquid price feed available at the moment of measurement.

Background

Extended is a consumer application project operating under the handle @extendedapp on X (formerly Twitter). The project sits within a broader wave of app-layer crypto products that have pursued token launches as a mechanism for community ownership and liquidity. Token launch FDV markets have become a standard instrument on Polymarket, allowing participants to take positions on the size of a project's market capitalisation at the critical moment of public trading. The structure of this market — with brackets ranging from $150M to $3B — reflects the wide uncertainty typical of pre-launch crypto projects, where valuations can vary by an order of magnitude depending on market conditions, tokenomics design, and the timing of the launch relative to broader sentiment cycles. Extended has not, as of the time of writing, publicly announced a confirmed launch date.

Key factors

Several structural variables will determine which brackets resolve Yes. First, the total token supply fixed in Extended's tokenomics documentation directly sets the denominator for FDV calculation — a larger supply at a given price produces a higher FDV. Second, the prevailing sentiment in crypto markets at launch will influence the price at which the token opens and sustains trading for the measurement window ending at 4:00 PM ET the following day. Third, the choice of exchange or liquidity venue affects which price feed qualifies as 'most liquid,' which in turn determines the official price used for resolution. Fourth, whether Extended opts for a gradual distribution, an airdrop, or a direct listing will shape early price discovery dynamics. Fifth, the deadline mechanism introduces a binary contingency: any delay past 31 December 2026 collapses all brackets to No regardless of any subsequent launch. Broader market conditions — including Bitcoin price trends and risk appetite across the crypto sector — will act as a macro backdrop influencing opening valuations.

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