Which company has the best Math AI model end of May?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Google is the heaviest-backed contender to hold the top-ranked maths AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of May 2026, with Anthropic as the only other meaningfully backed challenger in a field of 29 companies. The market resolves by checking the 'Text Arena | Math' leaderboard at arena.ai on 31 May 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, with the company owning the highest-ranked model declared the winner.

Market structure

Twenty-nine companies are listed as possible outcomes, but trading volume is heavily concentrated on two: Google and Anthropic. The remainder of the field — including OpenAI, xAI, DeepSeek, Meta, and others — carries only marginal backing. Resolution uses the official Chatbot Arena 'Text Arena | Math' leaderboard rank (style control off) at a single snapshot on 31 May 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Tiebreakers cascade through Arena score, then granular score, then alphabetical company name.

Background

Chatbot Arena, operated by lmarena.ai, is a widely cited independent benchmark that ranks large language models using blind pairwise human evaluations — human raters compare outputs from two anonymous models and vote for the better response. Its 'Math' vertical specifically tests models on mathematical reasoning tasks, from arithmetic to advanced proof-style problems. The leaderboard has become a reference point for the AI industry because it reflects aggregate human preference rather than a fixed test set, making it harder to overfit. Competition for the top maths ranking has intensified as leading AI laboratories have made mathematical reasoning a strategic priority, with several major model releases in 2025 specifically targeting benchmark performance in quantitative domains.

Key factors

The leaderboard rank captured at the single 12:00 PM ET snapshot on 31 May 2026 is the sole determinant of resolution, meaning any model release, update, or fine-tune deployed before that moment could shift rankings. The pace of model releases from Google, Anthropic, OpenAI, and Chinese laboratories such as DeepSeek means the competitive landscape may look substantially different by May 2026 than it does today. Arena rankings fluctuate as new human votes accumulate, so a model leading comfortably weeks before the snapshot could be overtaken by a newer entrant. The breadth of the field — 29 companies — means a surprise entrant from a currently low-backed organisation cannot be ruled out. The tiebreaker mechanism (Arena score, then granular score, then alphabetical company name) means that close races between Google and Anthropic, or any pair of companies, could hinge on a very small number of votes or on the alphabetical fallback, which favours Google over xAI in the final tiebreaker.

FAQ