Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by June 30?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

OpenAI's private market valuation market on Polymarket tracks whether the company's NPM Price will reach specified thresholds by 30 June 2026. Trading is heavily concentrated around the $850B–$950B range, with outcomes in that band drawing the most volume. The resolution source is Nasdaq Private Market data, with a final deadline of 1 July 2026.

Market structure

The market spans twelve outcome tiers, ranging from $600B to $1.5T. Volume is most concentrated in the $850B–$950B band, with a sharp drop-off above $1T and below $750B. The market resolves 'Yes' if the NPM Price reaches or exceeds the listed threshold at any point between creation and 30 June 2026. A fallback window extends to 11:59 PM ET on 4 July 2026 if NPM data publication is delayed.

Background

OpenAI has undergone a series of high-profile funding rounds that have dramatically reset expectations for its private market valuation. The company, best known for ChatGPT and the GPT series of large language models, completed a $6.6 billion funding round in late 2024 that valued it at $157 billion, followed by further capital raises in 2025 that pushed NPM-tracked valuations considerably higher. OpenAI's rapid commercial expansion, growing enterprise contracts, and its transition toward a for-profit corporate structure have all contributed to sustained upward revaluation. The company operates in an intensely competitive AI landscape alongside Google DeepMind, Anthropic, and Meta AI, and any shift in that competitive balance carries implications for how private markets price its equity.

Key factors

The primary driver of resolution is the NPM Price, which reflects secondary market trading in OpenAI's private shares. Factors that could move that price include new funding rounds at updated valuations, material changes to OpenAI's revenue trajectory or enterprise adoption, shifts in the broader AI investment climate, and any progress toward or against a potential IPO or direct listing. A public market debut before 30 June 2026 would introduce an additional resolution input: the IPO price and subsequent public market capitalisation. Regulatory developments — including any antitrust scrutiny or governance rulings affecting OpenAI's restructuring — could also influence private market sentiment. Macro conditions affecting venture and growth-stage valuations more broadly, including interest rate movements and risk appetite, provide a further structural input. If NPM ceases publishing data before the deadline, the market falls back on the last available NPM data plus any applicable public market capitalisation.

FAQ