#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple question: which app will sit at the very top of the US iPhone App Store's free apps chart at exactly noon Eastern Time on July 24, 2026? The two serious contenders the market has priced in are Netflix's game controller app and ChatGPT. A Yes for any option means that specific app is #1 at that moment, not second, not earlier that day, but exactly at the snapshot time. Whoever runs this market will check the US iPhone App Store's 'Top Free Apps' chart at 12:00 PM Eastern Time on July 24, 2026, and whichever app sits at position #1 at that precise moment wins. The source is the publicly visible chart at apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone. One important detail: it's a single snapshot, not a daily average, so a brief surge or drop right around noon could matter. None of the provided news headlines are meaningfully connected to this question. There's no recent news about a major app launch, viral trend, or App Store shakeup that would clearly push one app to the top. The kind of development worth watching for would be a big product launch, a viral moment, or a major news event that drives millions of people to download one specific app. App Store rankings can move fast and unpredictably. A single viral moment, a celebrity post, or a breaking news event in the days before July 24 could send any app surging to #1. The market currently leans toward Netflix's game controller app at 44%, with ChatGPT close behind at 34%, but that still leaves a real chance of a surprise. The biggest uncertainty is simply that a week is a long time on the internet, and nobody can reliably forecast what the internet will be obsessed with on any given Thursday.

The odds right now

• ChatGPT59%
• Netflix Game Controller25%
• TikTok Pro - Events0%
• Twitch: Live Streaming0%
• Google Gemini0%
• Facebook0%
• Threads0%
• Claude by Anthropic0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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