Berlin State Election Winner

What you need to know

This market asks which political party will win the most seats in Berlin's city-parliament election on September 20, 2026. Berlin has its own regional parliament, called the Abgeordnetenhaus, which governs the city-state. A 'Yes' for any listed party means that party finishes first in seat count — not that they win a majority or form the government, just that they come out on top among all parties. Whichever party holds the most seats after the September 20, 2026 election wins the market. Seat count is all that matters — not vote share, not who forms the ruling coalition afterward. If the election doesn't happen by December 31, 2026, everything resolves to 'Other.' In a tie, the party whose abbreviation comes first alphabetically wins. The official source is Berlin's Election Office. None of the provided news headlines relate to Berlin, German politics, or this election. No relevant recent developments were shared. The kind of news that would matter here: new polling from Berlin, a major party shakeup in Germany, or any event that shifts voter sentiment in the city ahead of the September 2026 vote. The three parties are genuinely close — Linke at 35%, Grüne at 26%, and AfD at 21% — so this is a real three-way contest with over a year still to go. German politics have shifted significantly in recent years, and Berlin's electorate is unusually fluid. Polling this far out is unreliable, parties can rise or fall with national events, and Berlin's last election was itself replayed due to irregularities, showing how unpredictable local elections can be.

The odds right now

• Linke+5.5 pts (1w)35%
• Grüne+1.6 pts (1w)26%
• AfD+5.6 pts (1w)21%
• CDU-9.0 pts (1w)17%
• SPD+0.2 pts (1w)5%
• FDP0%
• FW0%
• BSW0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 20, 2026

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)

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