Best AI model on June 13?

What you need to know

This market is asking: which AI model will be ranked #1 on a popular public leaderboard called Chatbot Arena on June 13, 2026? Chatbot Arena works by having real users chat with two anonymous AI models side by side and vote for whichever one they prefer — the rankings are built from millions of those votes. Right now, the market is almost entirely focused on one model: claude-opus-4-6-thinking, an AI assistant from Anthropic. A Yes on that option means it holds the top spot on that day. At 12:00 PM Eastern Time on June 13, 2026, someone checks the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at lmarena.ai and looks at the 'Text Arena | Overall' tab with style control turned off. Whatever model sits at rank #1 in that moment wins. If two models are tied on rank, the tiebreaker goes to the higher underlying score, then alphabetical order. Only models listed when this market was created are named options — any other model that somehow tops the leaderboard would fall under 'Other' and resolve that option instead. None of the provided news headlines relate to this market at all — they cover unrelated topics like stocks, civil unrest, and cybersecurity. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of update that would actually matter is a new AI model launch or a major shift in Chatbot Arena rankings, which you would find on AI news sites or the lmarena.ai leaderboard itself. The market is priced at 94% for claude-opus-4-6-thinking, so the main honest uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected disrupts that lead before June 13. In a fast-moving field like AI, a competitor could release a highly-rated new model that displaces the current leader — and because any unlisted model would count as 'Other,' that 7% 'Other' option represents that exact possibility. The leaderboard can also shift as more user votes accumulate. This is not a coin-toss situation — the market is heavily one-sided — but AI rankings can move quickly.

The odds right now

• claude-opus-4-6-thinking88%
• Other11%
• claude-opus-4-60%
• claude-opus-4-7-thinking0%
• gemini-3.1-pro-preview0%
• gemini-3.5-flash0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 13, 2026

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Related

Trade this market on Paridesk — non-custodial, 0.5% fee.