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Best AI model on June 13?

Best AI model on June 13?

Resolves Jun 13, 2026·$43.5k 24h vol·tech
$70.2k total volume·Open for 5 days

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

87%+60.9%

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Understand this market

This market is asking: which AI model will be ranked #1 on a popular public leaderboard called Chatbot Arena on June 13, 2026? Chatbot Arena works by having real users chat with two anonymous AI models side by side and vote for whichever one they prefer — the rankings are built from millions of those votes. Right now, the market is almost entirely focused on one model: claude-opus-4-6-thinking, an AI assistant from Anthropic. A Yes on that option means it holds the top spot on that day.

OutcomeYesNo
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Other
claude-opus-4-6
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
gemini-3.5-flash

Order Book

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

PriceSharesTotal
88.5¢50$44
88.4¢50$44
88.3¢50$44
88.2¢50$44
88.1¢50$44
88.0¢18$16
87.9¢50$44
87.8¢16$14
87.6¢20$18
87.5¢16$14
12.1¢last trade
0.2¢ spread
87.3¢243$212
87.2¢20$17
87.0¢5$4
84.9¢90$76
84.6¢40$34
74.4¢115$86
74.3¢495$368
74.2¢180$134
74.1¢90$67
73.9¢9$7
$1.0k bids$326 asks

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

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claude-opus-4-6-thinking

86%