Brazil Presidential Election

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple question: who will be Brazil's next president after the October 2026 election? A 'Yes' for any candidate means that person wins the presidency — whether in the first round outright or after a runoff vote. The three named candidates are the sitting president Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro (son of former president Jair Bolsonaro), and Renan Santos, a leader from the conservative MBL movement. Anyone else winning would fall under a separate 'Other' outcome. The market settles on whichever listed candidate the official Brazilian electoral authority — the TSE, the country's top election court — declares the winner. Brazil uses a two-round system: if no candidate clears 50% of valid votes on October 4, 2026, the top two face each other in a runoff a few weeks later. That second round is included here. The final result needs to be confirmed by June 30, 2027; if it isn't for any reason, the market resolves as 'Other' regardless of circumstances. None of the provided news headlines relate to the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kinds of developments worth watching for would be: official candidate registration decisions (especially regarding Jair Bolsonaro's eligibility), major polling shifts, economic news inside Brazil, or significant political alliances being announced. More than a year remains before voting day, which is a long time in politics — lineups, alliances, and public sentiment can shift significantly. A major unresolved question is whether Jair Bolsonaro, who was barred from office through 2030 by the TSE, might find a legal path back to the race, which could reshape the entire field. Lula's health, Brazil's economy, and whether the opposition consolidates around one candidate are all genuine unknowns that make the current odds a snapshot, not a verdict.

The odds right now

• Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva61%
• Flávio Bolsonaro+1.2 pts (1w)23%
• Renan Santos+0.4 pts (1w)10%
• Jair Bolsonaro+1.6 pts (1w)2%
• Ronaldo Caiado+0.5 pts (1w)2%
• Camilo Santana+0.1 pts (1w)1%
• Michelle Bolsonaro-0.7 pts (1w)1%
• Romeu Zema-0.1 pts (1w)1%
• Fernando Haddad-0.1 pts (1w)1%
• Geraldo Alckmin0%
• Tarcisio de Freitas0%
• Eduardo Bolsonaro0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves October 4, 2026

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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