Clacton by-election: 2nd place

What you need to know

This market is asking who will finish in second place — not first — in an upcoming UK parliamentary by-election in the constituency of Clacton. Clacton is a coastal seat in Essex, England. The by-election is happening because Nigel Farage, the sitting MP, has announced he is resigning his seat. The market is specifically tracking Count Binface, Nigel Farage, and Rees Cowne as named candidates, with anyone else lumped into an 'Other' category. The market settles on whichever candidate receives the second-highest number of valid votes cast on election day. Official results published by Tendring District Council or the UK Parliament are the final word. If two candidates somehow tie on votes, the one whose name comes first alphabetically is ranked higher. There is one important edge case: if the official result is not confirmed by June 30, 2027, the market resolves as 'Other' regardless of what happened — so a delayed or disputed count could produce a surprising outcome. None of the provided news headlines relate to the Clacton by-election or the candidates named in this market. The headline mentioning Nigel Farage is about a security briefing dispute, not the by-election itself. To track this market, the most useful things to watch for would be: an official date being set for the by-election, candidate confirmations, and any local or national polling for the seat. The most striking thing here is who the market prices as the frontrunner for second place: Count Binface, a well-known novelty candidate who runs in high-profile UK elections, is priced at 73%. That reflects a genuinely unusual situation where the serious candidates are expected to split or underperform. The real uncertainty is which credible party — Labour, Conservative, Reform, or Liberal Democrat — might surge and overtake everyone, and whether Count Binface's novelty appeal translates into actual votes when a real seat is at stake.

The odds right now

• Count Binface73%
• Nigel Farage6%
• Rees Cowne5%
• Matthew Bensilum2%
• Tony Mack2%
• Natasha Osben2%
• Jovan Owusu-Nepaul1%
• Andrew Pemberton1%
• Giles Watling1%
• Laurence Fox0%
• Piers Corbyn0%
• Adham Alkhatip0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2027

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' listed names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).

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