Donald Trump # Truth Social posts July 10 - July 17, 2026?

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple counting question: how many times will Donald Trump post on Truth Social during a specific seven-day window? The three outcome ranges are 160–179 posts, 180–199 posts, and 200 or more posts. To put that in everyday terms, 180 posts over seven days works out to roughly 25–26 posts per day — so the market is essentially debating whether Trump posts at a moderate pace, a high pace, or an extremely high pace during this particular week. At the end of the window — July 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM Eastern Time — a third-party tracking tool counts every main-feed post, repost, and quote post Trump made since July 10 at noon. Whatever that total number is decides which range wins. Replies don't count unless they appear on the main feed. Deleted posts still count if the tracker caught them within about five minutes. The tracker website is the primary judge; Truth Social itself is the backup if the tracker fails. The news from July 14 shows a busy stretch for Trump: comments on Iraq, moves related to the Strait of Hormuz, a legal development involving Mahmoud Khalil, a payment in the E. Jean Carroll case, and a message to Netanyahu about Syria. Multiple active news fronts in a single day can drive higher posting volume, since Trump frequently reacts to breaking events on Truth Social. Whether this pace continues through July 17 is the open question. Trump's posting volume can shift dramatically based on what's happening in the news, his travel schedule, or simply his mood on a given day — and none of those are predictable in advance. The three ranges are priced close together (42%, 32%, 31%), which tells you the market itself sees genuine uncertainty across all outcomes. One very active news day can push the total from the 180s into 200-plus territory; a quieter or travel-heavy stretch could pull it below 180. Small daily swings compound meaningfully over seven days.

The odds right now

• 180-199+28.5 pts (1w)42%
• 200++29.5 pts (1w)36%
• 160-179+16.5 pts (1w)25%
• 140-159-7.9 pts (1w)4%
• 120-139-25.0 pts (1w)2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 17, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between July 10, 12:00 PM ET and July 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

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