Elon Musk # tweets July 13 - July 15, 2026?

What you need to know

This market is simply asking: how many times will Elon Musk post on X over a 48-hour window, from noon on July 13 to noon on July 15, 2026? Yes and No don't apply here — instead, you're picking a range. The middle range (40–64 posts) is the most popular guess at 54%, meaning the market thinks a moderate level of activity is most likely. Under 40 would be a quiet stretch for him; 65 or more would be an unusually active two days. The market settles based on a post-counting tool at xtracker.polymarket.com, which tracks Musk's account during that exact 48-hour period. Main posts, quote posts, and reposts all count. Replies do not — unless they appear directly on his main feed rather than inside a conversation thread. One important edge case: deleted posts still count, as long as the tracker captured them within about five minutes of posting. Community reposts that the tracker doesn't register are excluded. No recent news was provided that connects to Elon Musk's posting activity or anything likely to drive a surge or slowdown in his X usage. The kind of developments worth watching would be major news events he's known to react to heavily — political controversies, Tesla or SpaceX announcements, or public disputes — since those tend to spike his output significantly. Musk's posting volume is genuinely unpredictable, even in the short term. A single breaking news story, a political argument, or a product launch can push his count from 'moderate' to 'very high' in hours. Conversely, travel, private commitments, or a quiet news cycle can suppress it. His historical average gives a rough baseline, but any single 48-hour window can swing well outside that range — which is exactly why the market spreads across three buckets rather than a simple yes or no.

The odds right now

• 40-6455%
• <4030%
• 65-8916%
• 90-1142%
• 115-1390%
• 140-1640%
• 165-1890%
• 190-2140%
• 215-2390%
• 240+0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 13 12:00 PM ET to July 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

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