Elon Musk # tweets July 16 - July 18, 2026?

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple counting question: how many times will Elon Musk post on X (formerly Twitter) during a specific 48-hour window? The three possible outcomes are fewer than 40 posts, between 40 and 64 posts, or between 65 and 89 posts. It has nothing to do with what he says — only how many times he posts. The market currently puts the most weight on the middle range (40–64), meaning participants collectively expect a moderately active posting stretch, not an unusually quiet or unusually explosive one. A third-party tracking tool called xtracker.polymarket.com will count Musk's posts between July 16 at 12:00 PM Eastern Time and July 18 at 12:00 PM Eastern Time — exactly 48 hours. Original posts, quote posts, and reposts all count. Regular replies do not count, but replies that appear on his main feed (a subtle distinction) do. Deleted posts count if they were live for roughly five minutes before deletion. Whichever range the final tally falls into wins. If the tracker malfunctions, X itself serves as the backup source. None of the recent news provided is connected to this market. The headlines cover unrelated political and local stories. For this market, the relevant thing to watch would be any major news event or public controversy in mid-July 2026 that might prompt Musk to post unusually often or go unusually quiet — since his posting volume tends to spike around topics he engages with publicly. Musk's posting habits are genuinely unpredictable day to day. He has stretches of hundreds of posts and stretches of near silence, often driven by whatever news cycle or personal interest captures his attention that week. There is no reliable way to forecast his mood or engagement level weeks in advance. The spread of odds across all three ranges reflects this honestly — no single outcome commands a strong majority. The main wildcards are unexpected news events and whether he happens to be in a high-energy posting period or a quieter one.

The odds right now

• 40-6449%
• <4028%
• 65-8919%
• 90-1144%
• 115-1391%
• 140-1640%
• 165-1890%
• 190-2140%
• 215-2390%
• 240+0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 18, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 16 12:00 PM ET to July 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

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