Fed Decision in July?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether the US Federal Reserve will change its benchmark interest rate at its July 2026 meeting — and if so, by how much. The Fed sets a target range for borrowing costs across the whole economy; this market tracks the top of that range. A 'No change' outcome means the Fed holds steady. A '25 bps increase' means the Fed raised rates by a quarter of a percentage point — making borrowing slightly more expensive. A '25 bps decrease' means the opposite: a small cut, making borrowing slightly cheaper. The market settles based on the official statement the Fed releases after its two-day meeting on July 28–29, 2026. Whatever the Fed announces as its new target rate upper bound is compared to the rate before that meeting, and the difference determines the outcome. One important edge case: if the statement is somehow never released by the market's end date, it automatically resolves as 'No change.' Another quirk: any unusual move — say, a 12.5 basis point shift — gets rounded up to the nearest 25 when determining the outcome. None of the provided news headlines relate to this market. They cover unrelated topics like stock markets in Zimbabwe, UK politics, and an obituary. The kinds of developments that would actually matter here are US inflation data, employment reports, or public statements from Federal Reserve officials signaling their intentions ahead of the July meeting. The market is heavily weighted toward 'No change' at 80%, so the main uncertainty is not really a coin-toss between two equal sides — it is whether something unexpected forces the Fed's hand. The Fed rarely surprises markets, but economic data can shift quickly: a sudden spike in inflation or a sharp rise in unemployment could change the picture fast. With the meeting still weeks away, there is time for new economic data to arrive that could move Fed officials — and market expectations — in either direction.

The odds right now

• No change-10.0 pts (1w)80%
• 25 bps increase+10.2 pts (1w)20%
• 25 bps decrease1%
• 50+ bps increase+0.4 pts (1w)1%
• 50+ bps decrease0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 29, 2026

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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