How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Prediction market trading on the number of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 is heavily concentrated on zero cuts, making it the dominant outcome by a wide margin. The market spans thirteen possible outcomes, from no cuts to twelve or more, with volume falling sharply beyond the first two outcomes. Resolution is determined by official FOMC statements published at federalreserve.gov, with the market remaining open until 31 December 2026 to capture any emergency actions.

Market structure

Thirteen discrete outcomes cover the range from zero cuts to twelve or more, each cut counted in 25-basis-point increments. Volume is heavily concentrated on zero cuts, with a small secondary cluster on one cut and a sharply diminishing tail beyond that. Resolution draws from official Federal Reserve FOMC statements and the published federal funds rate target. The market closes 31 December 2026, with emergency inter-meeting cuts counting toward the annual total.

Background

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark federal funds rate aggressively between 2022 and 2023 in response to elevated inflation, reaching a target range of 5.25–5.50 percent. A gradual easing cycle began in late 2024, but the pace of cuts slowed considerably entering 2025 as inflation proved persistent and labour markets remained resilient. By the time 2026 markets opened, the Fed had signalled a cautious posture, leaving investors to debate whether any further easing would materialise. Tariff-related trade policy shifts, global growth uncertainty, and domestic inflation dynamics have all added complexity to the rate outlook, making the Fed's 2026 calendar a focal point for fixed-income traders, mortgage markets, and dollar-sensitive assets worldwide.

Key factors

Several structural factors shape how this market may resolve. Inflation data — particularly the Consumer Price Index and the Fed's preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures measure — will be the primary driver of whether the FOMC judges conditions appropriate for easing. A sustained return toward the 2 percent target would open the door to cuts; a re-acceleration would close it. Labour market conditions matter in the Fed's dual mandate: a sharp rise in unemployment could prompt emergency or accelerated cuts, while continued strength reduces pressure to ease. Fiscal policy and trade tariffs feed into inflation expectations and therefore influence the Fed's calculus. Global central bank divergence — including actions by the European Central Bank and Bank of England — affects dollar flows and financial conditions. Finally, the number of scheduled FOMC meetings in 2026 (eight in total) sets a natural ceiling on gradual easing, while the emergency-cut provision means geopolitical or financial-stability shocks could add to the total outside that calendar.

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