Fed Decision in October?

What you need to know

This market asks a simple question: will the US Federal Reserve raise, lower, or hold steady its key interest rate at its October 2026 meeting? The Fed's interest rate is the main dial it uses to manage the economy — higher rates slow borrowing and spending, lower rates encourage them. A 'Yes' to no change means the Fed leaves that dial exactly where it is; the other options mean it moves by a quarter of a percentage point (0.25%) in either direction. This settles based on the official statement the Fed releases after its two-day meeting on October 27–28, 2026. The market looks at the upper bound of the Fed's target rate range and measures how much it moved from the previous meeting. If the change falls between standard steps — say, 0.125% — it gets rounded up to 0.25%. If the Fed releases no statement by the deadline, the market automatically resolves as 'No change.' The Fed's own website is the sole source of truth. None of the provided news headlines relate to US Federal Reserve policy, interest rates, or the American economy in a meaningful way. No relevant news was provided for this market. The kinds of developments worth watching would be US inflation data, employment reports, or public statements from Fed officials about their intentions for late 2026. The main challenge is that October 2026 is still many months away, and the Fed's decisions depend heavily on economic data that hasn't been released yet — things like inflation readings and job market numbers. The market currently leans strongly toward no change at around 69%, but the Fed has surprised markets before. A sudden shift in inflation or growth could push the Fed to act. The roughly 30% probability split between a hike and a cut shows genuine disagreement about which direction pressure might come from.

The odds right now

• No change+1.0 pts (1w)69%
• 25 bps increase+5.5 pts (1w)18%
• 25 bps decrease-3.0 pts (1w)12%
• 50+ bps decrease-0.7 pts (1w)1%
• 50+ bps increase-1.8 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves October 28, 2026

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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