Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the US Federal Reserve do with interest rates across three specific meetings — July, September, and October 2026? Interest rates set by the Fed affect borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans, and business credit across the whole economy. A 'pause' means the Fed leaves rates exactly where they are. A 'cut' means it lowers them, making borrowing cheaper. The market is tracking the exact sequence of those three decisions, like predicting the score of three rounds in a row. After each of the three scheduled Fed meetings — July 28-29, September 15-16, and October 27-28 — the official outcome is checked: did rates go up, down, or stay the same? The final result is the combination of all three calls, like 'Pause–Pause–Cut'. If rates are hiked at any point, or if the combination doesn't match any listed option, the market settles as 'Other'. One important note: emergency rate moves outside these scheduled meetings don't count — only the official meeting decisions do. None of the provided news headlines relate to US Federal Reserve policy or the American economy. No relevant recent news was shared for this market. The kinds of developments worth watching would be US inflation data releases, official Fed statements or speeches by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and major US jobs reports — any of those can shift expectations about what the Fed will do next. The 'Other' category leading at 55% reflects real confusion about where rates are headed — it captures any hike or any unlisted combination, so it's a broad bucket. The core difficulty is that Fed decisions depend on economic data that hasn't been released yet: inflation readings, employment numbers, and global financial conditions between now and late October. The Fed itself says it decides meeting by meeting. That makes a three-meeting sequence genuinely hard to pin down, even for professional economists who follow this closely.

The odds right now

• Other+17.0 pts (1w)56%
• Pause–Pause–Pause-24.0 pts (1w)28%
• Pause–Pause–Cut-1.7 pts (1w)4%
• Pause–Cut–Cut+1.5 pts (1w)2%
• Pause–Cut–Pause-1.1 pts (1w)1%
• Cut–Pause–Pause-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Cut–Pause–Cut0%
• Cut–Cut–Pause0%
• Cut–Cut–Cut0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves October 28, 2026

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

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