Greater Manchester Mayoral Election Winner

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple question: who will win the 2026 election for Mayor of Greater Manchester? Greater Manchester is a large region in northwest England covering cities like Manchester and Salford, and its elected mayor holds significant powers over transport, housing, and policing. A win for Bev Craig means she becomes the next mayor. A win for Sian Astley or Geraldine Coggins — or someone else entirely — would be a major upset against what the market currently expects. The market settles on whichever candidate officially becomes Mayor of Greater Manchester as a result of the July 30, 2026 election. The result will be confirmed using credible news reporting, with the official Greater Manchester Combined Authority website as the final word if anything is unclear. Two important edge cases: any temporary or interim mayor appointed before the election does not count, and if for some reason the result is still unknown by June 30, 2027, the market settles as 'Other' rather than waiting indefinitely. None of the news provided relates to this election — the headlines cover international events with no connection to Greater Manchester politics. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of development that would matter is any local polling update, a major candidate announcement, a party endorsement shift, or news about voter turnout expectations ahead of the July 30 vote. At 96%, the market is heavily one-sided — it strongly expects Bev Craig to win. When odds are this lopsided, the honest question is not 'who might win?' but rather 'what unlikely event could change things?' That could include a late scandal, a surprising shift in the political landscape, a strong local campaign by a rival, or low turnout affecting results in unexpected ways. These outcomes are possible but the market is treating them as quite unlikely. The main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected happens before polling day.

The odds right now

• Bev Craig+6.0 pts (1w)98%
• Sian Astley-5.9 pts (1w)2%
• Geraldine Coggins+0.2 pts (1w)1%
• Kate Green0%
• Laura Evans0%
• Nick Buckley0%
• Dan Barker-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Hannah Spencer0%
• Jake Austin0%
• Paul Dennett0%
• Arooj Shah0%
• Marlon Scott West-0.5 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 30, 2026

The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Greater Manchester as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).

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