Highest temperature in Chengdu on June 15?

What you need to know

This market is simply asking: how hot will Chengdu get on June 15, 2026? Specifically, will the day's peak temperature land at 31°C or below (roughly 88°F or cooler), hit exactly 32°C (about 90°F), or reach 33°C (about 91°F)? Think of it as a thermometer poll — whichever bracket contains the afternoon high wins. The market currently leans toward the cooler end, with 59% odds on 31°C or below. After June 15 ends, whoever runs this market checks a specific weather station — Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport — on Weather Underground's historical records. The single highest temperature logged that day, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, determines which bracket wins. The market can only officially close once the first data point for June 16 appears on that page, locking in the final reading. Any last-minute corrections to the June 15 data are accepted up until that point. The two news items provided — one about a Malaysian student scholarship program and one about Israeli settlement policy — have no connection to Chengdu's weather. There is no relevant recent news to draw on here. What would actually matter to watch: any regional weather forecasts for Chengdu in the days leading up to June 15, or reports of unusual heat or monsoon activity in southwest China that week. Weather is genuinely hard to forecast more than a few days out, and a single day's peak temperature is especially sensitive to small shifts in cloud cover, wind, or the timing of rain. June is the start of Chengdu's rainy season, which typically keeps temperatures somewhat in check — but heat spikes are possible. The three brackets are fairly close together (just a degree or two apart), so even a small forecast error tips the outcome. The gap between now and June 2026 makes precision essentially impossible today.

The odds right now

• 31°C or below72%
• 32°C23%
• 33°C6%
• 34°C4%
• 35°C1%
• 36°C0%
• 37°C0%
• 38°C0%
• 39°C0%
• 40°C0%
• 41°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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