Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Hong Kong get on June 15, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day — and which degree-Celsius bucket that number falls into. A win for '29°C' means the peak temperature that day was somewhere in the 29°C range (like 29.0 to 29.9°C). It's essentially a weather forecast frozen into a specific date, turned into a question about which temperature band the thermometer peaks in. The market settles based on one specific number: the 'Absolute Daily Max' temperature published by the Hong Kong Observatory for June 15, 2026, in their official Daily Extract data. Whatever that number is — measured to one decimal place, like 29.4°C — the market resolves to whichever listed range contains it. The first published figure is final; any later corrections won't count. The market can't close until the Observatory actually publishes that day's data. None of the provided news is relevant to Hong Kong's weather on June 15, 2026. To watch for things that would actually matter here: any forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory as the date approaches, or any unusual weather patterns — like typhoons or heat waves — developing in the South China Sea region around that time. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and even short-range forecasts carry real uncertainty. Mid-June in Hong Kong is deep in its hot, humid season, so temperatures in the high 20s to low 30s are all plausible — which is exactly why the market spreads probability across several nearby bands. A passing storm could cap the temperature; a clear, sunny day could push it higher. The honest answer is that no one knows until the day arrives.

The odds right now

• 29°C39%
• 28°C25%
• 30°C21%
• 27°C7%
• 31°C4%
• 32°C1%
• 26°C1%
• 33°C or higher0%
• 25°C0%
• 24°C0%
• 23°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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