Highest temperature in Madrid on June 12?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on June 12, 2026, what will the hottest temperature of the day be in Madrid? Specifically, it's asking whether the peak temperature at Madrid's main airport weather station hits 33°C, 34°C, or 35°C — think of those as roughly 91°F, 93°F, and 95°F respectively. The market currently puts a 64% chance on 34°C being the peak, 30% on 35°C, and 5% on 33°C. Early June in Madrid is warm and can get genuinely hot, so these are all plausible summer readings. The market settles based on the single highest temperature recorded at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport on June 12, 2026, as logged on the weather website Weather Underground. The reading is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius — so 34.7°C would count as 34°C, for example. The result is locked in once the first data point for June 13 appears on that site. Any corrections to the June 12 data made before that cutoff count; corrections made after do not. None of the provided news headlines are relevant to this market. They cover unrelated topics — a community calendar and bank lending figures. To watch for: as June 12, 2026 approaches, short-range weather forecasts for Madrid and any news about heat waves or unusual pressure systems over the Iberian Peninsula would be the most meaningful signals. Weather is genuinely hard to forecast more than a few days out, and a single day's peak temperature is especially sensitive to small shifts — a cloud cover difference, a wind direction change, or a passing weather system can easily move the needle by a degree or two. The gap between 34°C and 35°C is just one degree, which is within normal forecast error even close to the date. The market is fairly confident about 34°C, but the 30% chance on 35°C reflects how thin the margin really is between these outcomes.

The odds right now

• 34°C60%
• 35°C24%
• 33°C16%
• 32°C1%
• 36°C1%
• 37°C0%
• 40°C or higher0%
• 30°C or below0%
• 31°C0%
• 38°C0%
• 39°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 12, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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