Highest temperature in Manila on June 14?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on June 14, 2026, how hot will Manila get at its peak? Specifically, it asks whether the single highest temperature reading of that day at the airport weather station will land in the 32°C range (about 90°F), the 33°C range (about 91°F), or the 34°C range (about 93°F). Think of it as a bracket — whichever temperature band the day's high falls into wins. The market currently leans toward 32°C, with about 54% odds, but 33°C is also considered quite plausible at 31%. The market settles — meaning it gets a final Yes or No — based on the peak temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport weather station on June 14, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground. Only whole-degree Celsius readings are used, so 32.7°C would count as 32°C, not 33°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for June 15 appears on that site. Any corrections published before that cutoff count; corrections after do not. Neither of the two recent headlines provided relates to Manila's weather, temperature forecasts, or climate conditions in the Philippines. There is no relevant news to point to here. What would matter to watch: seasonal weather forecasts for Manila in mid-June, or any unusual weather patterns flagged by Philippine meteorological authorities as that date approaches. Weather forecasting over a year in advance is genuinely very hard — no model predicts a specific day's high temperature that far out. June 14 falls in Manila's wet season, when rain can cool a day down or humidity can push it up unpredictably. The gap between 32°C and 33°C is just one degree, which is well within normal daily variation. A single cloud cover pattern or afternoon storm can shift the outcome entirely, making this more uncertain than the odds might suggest.

The odds right now

• 32°C100%
• 33°C0%
• 27°C or below0%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 34°C0%
• 35°C0%
• 36°C0%
• 37°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 14, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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