Highest temperature in Munich on June 13?

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the peak temperature be in Munich on June 13, 2026 — specifically 24°C, 25°C, or 26°C? Each option represents a single degree on the Celsius scale (roughly 75–79°F), and participants are guessing which exact whole-number reading will be the highest of the day. A 'Yes' on 25°C means the day's peak tops out at exactly 25 — not 24, not 26. It's a precise, narrow question about a single summer day's weather at Munich Airport. The market settles based on the highest temperature reading logged at Munich Airport (station code EDDM) on June 13, 2026, pulled from the weather site Wunderground. The reading must be a whole number in Celsius — so 24.7°C would count as 24°C, for example. The result is locked in once Wunderground publishes its first data point for June 14, 2026. Any corrections Wunderground makes before that cutoff count; anything revised after does not. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of development that would matter here is a seasonal weather outlook for Central Europe in mid-June 2026 — for instance, a long-range forecast showing an unusual heat pattern or a cold front expected around that date. Without that, the market is working mainly from historical temperature averages for Munich in mid-June. Weather is genuinely hard to predict a year out, and the question is narrow — it's asking for a single exact degree, not just 'warm' or 'cool.' Even on the day itself, the difference between 24°C and 25°C can come down to a passing cloud or a slight shift in wind. The market spreads probability across three adjacent degrees (41%, 26%, 24%), reflecting real uncertainty rather than one clear answer. Long-range forecasting simply cannot pin down a single-degree reading this far in advance.

The odds right now

• 26°C51%
• 25°C32%
• 27°C or higher7%
• 24°C6%
• 23°C1%
• 22°C0%
• 21°C0%
• 17°C or below0%
• 18°C0%
• 19°C0%
• 20°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 13, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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