Highest temperature in NYC on June 12?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on June 12, 2026, how hot will it get in New York City? Specifically, it's asking which temperature range the afternoon peak will fall into — think of it as guessing the highest number on a thermometer that day. The ranges on offer are roughly 'very hot' (92–93°F), 'very, very hot' (94–95°F), and 'extremely hot' (96–97°F). For context, all three options are well above a typical New York June day, which averages around 80°F. The market settles based on one specific reading: the highest temperature recorded on June 12, 2026, at LaGuardia Airport, as reported by Weather Underground. Whatever the peak temperature is that day — to the nearest whole degree Fahrenheit — determines which range wins. The result can only be finalized after the first data point for June 13 appears on that site, giving time for any late corrections to June 12's readings to be counted. Temperatures are rounded to whole degrees, so no decimal guessing needed. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Because the date is still roughly a year away, the key things to watch for closer to June 2026 would be extended weather forecasts, any heat dome or high-pressure system developing over the Northeast, and seasonal climate outlooks from NOAA. Weather a year in advance is genuinely unpredictable — no forecast model reaches that far. Even in the final days before June 12, 2026, a slight shift in wind direction or a passing cloud system can move a peak temperature by several degrees. The market is currently spread across three ranges that together span just six degrees, so a small meteorological change tips the outcome entirely. All three options are plausible; the market simply reflects the statistical likelihood of each band based on historical patterns, not actual forecast data.

The odds right now

• 94-95°F50%
• 96-97°F25%
• 92-93°F16%
• 98-99°F3%
• 100°F or higher3%
• 90-91°F2%
• 88-89°F1%
• 81°F or below0%
• 86-87°F0%
• 82-83°F0%
• 84-85°F0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 12, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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