Highest temperature in Seoul on June 12?

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the hottest moment of the day be in the Seoul area on June 12, 2026? The options are specific temperature readings — 24°C, 25°C, or 26°C (roughly 75°F, 77°F, and 79°F). A 'Yes' on 25°C, for example, means the thermometer peaked at exactly 25 degrees that day — not a range, but a single whole-number reading. The market currently puts 25°C as the most likely outcome at 39%, followed by 24°C at 31%, and 26°C at 17%. The market settles based on the single highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on June 12, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground's history page for that station. The reading is rounded to a whole degree Celsius — so 25.7°C would count as 25°C, not 26°C. One important detail: the market waits until the first data point from June 13 appears before it officially closes, to make sure the full day's readings are in. Any late corrections to the data are accepted up until that first June 13 reading is published. There is no specific recent news relevant to this market. For a weather market set more than a year away, the most useful thing to watch for would be seasonal climate outlooks for South Korea in early June — particularly any long-range forecasts or climate pattern signals (like El Niño or La Niña conditions) that could shift expectations for summer temperatures in the region. Weather a year out is genuinely very hard to pin down — even professional meteorologists only forecast reliably about 10 days ahead. The three leading options span just a 2°C range, meaning even a modest swing in conditions that day shifts the outcome entirely. June in Seoul is early summer, so temperatures in the mid-20s°C are historically common, but any single day can surprise. The spread across 24°C, 25°C, and 26°C reflects real uncertainty, not a clear favorite — the market's top pick at 39% still leaves plenty of room for the others.

The odds right now

• 25°C39%
• 24°C35%
• 26°C16%
• 23°C12%
• 27°C or higher2%
• 22°C1%
• 21°C0%
• 20°C0%
• 17°C or below0%
• 18°C0%
• 19°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 12, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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