Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 10?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on June 10, 2026, what will the highest temperature of the day be at Shanghai's Pudong International Airport, measured in whole degrees Celsius? The options are 28°C (about 82°F), 29°C (about 84°F), or 30°C (about 86°F) — think of it as predicting whether Shanghai will have a mild early-summer day, a warm one, or a noticeably hot one. The market currently puts about an 80% chance on 28°C being the peak. This market settles based on the single highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong Airport on June 10, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website. The number is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius — no decimals. Whichever temperature range contains that peak reading wins. The market cannot officially close until the first data point from June 11 appears on that site, confirming the day is complete. Any corrections made to the June 10 data before that cutoff count; corrections after do not. None of the provided recent news has any connection to this market. The headlines are all about university campuses in India and have no bearing on Shanghai weather. There is no relevant news to point to here. The kind of update that would actually matter is a weather forecast for Shanghai in early June 2026 — specifically any unusual heat or cold patterns approaching that date. Weather forecasting more than a few days out is genuinely difficult, and this date is still in the future. Early June in Shanghai is typically warm but not extreme, which is why the market leans toward 28°C. The real uncertainty is natural variability — an unexpected heat wave or a cooler, cloudier stretch could shift the peak by a degree or two either way. A single degree is a small margin, and local conditions at one specific airport station can differ slightly from the broader city.

The odds right now

• 28°C100%
• 23°C or below0%
• 24°C0%
• 25°C0%
• 26°C0%
• 27°C0%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 32°C0%
• 33°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 10, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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