Highest temperature in Warsaw on June 12?

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the hottest point of the day be in Warsaw on June 12, 2026? Not the average — the single highest temperature reading that day. The three options are 18°C, 19°C, or 20°C, which in everyday terms is a mild-to-warm early-summer day, roughly 64–68°F. The market is currently split, with 19°C seen as most likely, followed by 20°C, then 18°C. After June 12, 2026 ends, whoever runs this market will check the Warsaw Chopin Airport weather station's data on Weather Underground and find the single highest temperature recorded that day, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. Whatever bucket that number falls into — 18°C, 19°C, or 20°C — wins. The data is locked in once the first reading of June 13 appears on that site; any corrections made after that point are ignored. No recent news relevant to this market was provided. The two headlines available are unrelated to Warsaw weather. What would actually matter here is a reliable long-range weather forecast for Warsaw around June 12, 2026 — but those only become meaningfully accurate within about 10 days of the date itself. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a week or two out, and a single degree separates all three outcomes — that is an extremely narrow margin. The three options together cover just a 3°C window, so an unexpected cold front or a warm spell pushing the day above 20°C (which has no option here) could shift everything. The market is moderately confident in 19°C, but 31% still goes to 20°C and 15% to 18°C, reflecting real meteorological uncertainty.

The odds right now

• 20°C96%
• 21°C5%
• 22°C1%
• 14°C or below0%
• 15°C0%
• 16°C0%
• 17°C0%
• 18°C0%
• 19°C0%
• 23°C0%
• 24°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 12, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Related

Trade this market on Paridesk — non-custodial, 0.5% fee.