Highest temperature in Wellington on June 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on a single day in Wellington, New Zealand, how warm will it get? Specifically, will the highest temperature of the day land at 16°C, 17°C, or 18°C — roughly the difference between a cool winter day and a slightly milder one. June 15 is mid-winter in Wellington (New Zealand's seasons are flipped from the northern hemisphere), so we're talking about chilly daytime highs, not summer heat. The market currently favors 17°C, with 16°C close behind. The market settles on whichever single degree Celsius bucket — 16°C, 17°C, or 18°C — matches the peak temperature recorded that day at Wellington International Airport, as logged on the Weather Underground website. The reading is rounded to the nearest whole degree. Settlement happens once the first data point for June 16 appears on that site, locking in the final number. Any corrections published before that cutoff count; corrections after it do not. No relevant news was provided for this market. That's normal here — weather markets rarely have news driving them. What would actually matter is any meteorological forecast for Wellington around June 15, 2026, or historical records of mid-June temperatures at the airport. Those are the kinds of signals worth watching as the date approaches. Weather is genuinely hard to pin down, even one day out — let alone a year away. The three options cover a narrow 3-degree window, and the market is split almost evenly between 16°C and 17°C, reflecting real uncertainty about which side a single day's peak will land on. Wellington is also famously windy and variable, meaning actual conditions can shift quickly. A single cloud bank or wind direction change on the day could be the difference between the two leading options.

The odds right now

• 17°C68%
• 18°C28%
• 19°C1%
• 20°C0%
• 16°C0%
• 11°C or below0%
• 12°C0%
• 13°C0%
• 14°C0%
• 15°C0%
• 21°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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