How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

What you need to know

This market is asking how many times the US Federal Reserve will lower interest rates during 2026 — and right now, the market strongly expects zero cuts. The Fed sets a key interest rate that affects borrowing costs across the whole economy: mortgages, car loans, business credit. When the Fed 'cuts,' it lowers that rate to make borrowing cheaper, usually to stimulate a slowing economy. The three options here are: no cuts at all, one cut (a small 0.25% reduction), or two cuts (a 0.50% total reduction). This market settles based on the official announcements from the Federal Reserve after its scheduled 2026 meetings, plus any surprise emergency cuts made outside those meetings. Each 0.25% reduction counts as one cut — so a single 0.50% cut counts as two. A tiny cut of less than 0.25% (but more than zero) still counts as one cut. The market stays open until December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET to capture any last-minute emergency moves. If a particular outcome becomes mathematically impossible mid-year, that option closes early. None of the provided news headlines relate to Federal Reserve policy, US interest rates, or the economic conditions that typically drive rate decisions. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kinds of developments worth watching would be: US inflation reports, unemployment data, Fed Chair statements, or signs of significant economic slowdown or stress. The market is heavily skewed — about 78% odds on zero cuts — so the main uncertainty is not really 'which side wins' but whether something unexpected forces the Fed's hand. Inflation could prove stubborn, keeping rates high. Or a sharp economic downturn could push the Fed to cut quickly. The Fed also responds to events no one can fully anticipate — a financial crisis, a sudden spike in unemployment, or global shocks. With six months still remaining in 2026, there is real time for the picture to shift.

The odds right now

• 0 (0 bps)+0.7 pts (1w)78%
• 1 (25 bps)14%
• 2 (50 bps)+0.2 pts (1w)5%
• 3 (75 bps)+0.1 pts (1w)2%
• 12+ (300+ bps)+0.3 pts (1w)1%
• 4 (100 bps)+0.1 pts (1w)1%
• 5 (125 bps)+0.1 pts (1w)0%
• 6 (150 bps)0%
• 7 (175 bps)0%
• 8 (200 bps)0%
• 9 (225 bps)0%
• 10 (250 bps)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

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