IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?

What you need to know

This market asks whether UN nuclear inspectors will physically walk into one of Iran's three most sensitive nuclear sites — Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz — before a given deadline. Right now, Iran has severely restricted the IAEA's access to these specific locations. A 'Yes' would mean inspectors got back inside at least one of them in person. A 'No' means the doors stayed shut. This is essentially a question about whether Iran opens up its most closely guarded nuclear facilities to international oversight. The market settles 'Yes' the moment a credible, confirmed report — from the IAEA itself or major news outlets — shows that an IAEA inspector, staffer, or the Director General physically entered one of the three named sites before the deadline. Virtual inspections don't count, nor do visits to other Iranian nuclear locations. One important edge case: a nearby area called Pickaxe Mountain is explicitly excluded from the Natanz site, so a visit there would not qualify. The deadline for the December 31 version is 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. A headline from July 15, 2026 indicates that President Trump issued a warning to Iran over nuclear site activity, which suggests tensions around Iran's nuclear program are active right now. No specific details about IAEA access or a diplomatic breakthrough are provided in the available news. The kind of development that would matter most to watch for is any announcement of resumed nuclear talks between Iran and Western powers, or a direct statement from the IAEA about regaining site access. Iran–IAEA access is genuinely unpredictable because it depends on high-stakes diplomacy, not any single measurable fact. A sudden deal could restore access quickly; a breakdown in talks could keep inspectors out for years. The market currently prices the December 31, 2026 version at only 21%, reflecting how difficult access has been — but diplomacy can shift fast. Trump's public warning adds pressure but pressure alone hasn't historically guaranteed results. The main honest uncertainty is whether political conditions shift enough, soon enough, for Iran to allow inspectors in.

The odds right now

• December 31-22.5 pts (1w)22%
• October 3113%
• August 315%
• July 31-2.2 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.

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