Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Prediction markets are tracking whether Iran will publicly agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, and if so, by which date in 2026. Trading is most heavily concentrated on a December 31 resolution, with earlier deadlines of June 30 and May 31 attracting notably less volume. Resolution requires a credible public pledge to transfer enriched uranium outside Iranian control, not merely a cap or limit on enrichment levels.

Market structure

The market offers four outcome dates within 2026, reflecting when Iran might publicly agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile. Volume is heavily concentrated on the December 31 deadline, with June 30 and May 31 attracting considerably less backing. A 'No' outcome — meaning no qualifying agreement is reached by the final deadline — is implicitly covered by the structure. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying public pledge.

Background

Iran's enriched uranium stockpile has been a central point of contention in nuclear diplomacy since the collapse of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the subsequent reimposition of US sanctions. Iran has since accumulated uranium enriched to levels approaching weapons-grade, well beyond JCPOA limits. Renewed diplomatic contacts between the United States and Iran in 2025, alongside continued pressure from Israel and European powers, have placed the question of uranium disposition — rather than merely enrichment caps — at the heart of any potential new framework. Whether Iran would agree to physically relinquish stockpiles, rather than simply freeze or dilute them, represents a significantly higher threshold than previous negotiating positions have required.

Key factors

Several structural factors shape when or whether a qualifying agreement could emerge. The pace of US-Iran diplomatic engagement, including whether formal or back-channel talks produce a framework that includes physical transfer of material, is a primary determinant. Israel's military posture toward Iranian nuclear facilities creates a parallel pressure track that could either accelerate diplomacy or disrupt it. Iran's domestic political calendar and the degree of factional consensus around any deal will influence whether a public pledge is authorised. The specific resolution criteria require transfer of physical custody to an entity outside Iranian control — a higher bar than enrichment caps — meaning agreements that stop short of that threshold will not qualify. International guarantees, the role of the IAEA, and whether a third country agrees to receive enriched material are all logistical dependencies that could affect the timeline even if political will exists.

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