Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

What you need to know

This market is asking: will Iran publicly agree to hand over its stockpile of enriched uranium to someone outside its control — and by when? Enriched uranium is the material at the center of Iran's nuclear program; it can be used for energy but also, at higher concentrations, for weapons. A 'Yes' means Iran makes a clear public commitment to physically transfer that material out of its own hands. A 'No' means no such commitment is made by the deadline. The market settles as Yes if Iran makes a public pledge — alone or as part of a deal with the U.S. or Israel — to transfer any portion of its enriched uranium to an entity outside Iran's control, before the relevant deadline. Even a partial agreement counts, and even an unfinished deal counts, as long as the pledge is public and credible reporting confirms it. One important edge case: an agreement to simply enrich less, or to cap enrichment below weapons-grade, does NOT count. The uranium must actually be going somewhere outside Iran. The most recent news is significant: as of July 13, 2026, the U.S. has declared a naval blockade on Iran, Trump has warned of taking control of the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran has reportedly launched missile and drone attacks intercepted by Bahrain. This represents a sharp escalation in tensions — the kind of development that makes a voluntary uranium surrender agreement, which requires diplomatic cooperation, considerably harder to imagine in the near term. The core difficulty is that surrendering its uranium stockpile would mean Iran giving up what it considers its most powerful negotiating chip and security guarantee — something it has refused to do for decades. The market prices the December 2026 deadline at only 14%, reflecting deep skepticism. The fresh military escalation in July 2026 makes near-term diplomacy look especially unlikely. The main uncertainty now is whether any back-channel negotiation could reverse that trajectory fast enough — which is genuinely hard to foresee.

The odds right now

• December 31-2.0 pts (1w)14%
• October 318%
• August 315%
• July 31-0.4 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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