Iran closes its airspace by...?

What you need to know

This market asks whether Iran will shut down a large portion of its own air travel — grounding or blocking commercial flights broadly across the country or a major region of it — before a given deadline. A 'Yes' means Iran itself orders a wide closure affecting normal passenger flights at multiple major airports, the kind of shutdown where airlines can't operate as usual. A 'No' means no such sweeping closure happens by that date, even if there are smaller disruptions or restrictions by other countries. The market settles 'Yes' only if Iran's own authorities order a broad commercial airspace closure — not caused by weather — that shuts down flights at two or more of its five biggest airports (Tehran's Khomeini or Mehrabad, Mashhad, Shiraz, or Isfahan). Small local restrictions, drill-related notices around one area, or flight bans imposed by other countries don't count. The window that matters starts June 9, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET and runs to the deadline for each date option. Judges use official Iranian aviation statements and credible news reporting to decide. The news from June 10, 2026 is directly relevant and significant: U.S. and Iranian forces have exchanged strikes, an American military helicopter was downed near the Strait of Hormuz, Jordan intercepted Iranian missiles, and reports describe intensifying military confrontation. This kind of active armed conflict between Iran and the U.S. is precisely the scenario that has triggered Iranian airspace closures in the past — the January 2026 and April 2024 closures both followed periods of acute regional military tension. The core tension is real and active: a live military conflict is underway, which historically leads to airspace closures, but whether Iran orders a broad shutdown in the specific timeframe — and broad enough to meet the criteria — is still genuinely unknown. Even in a crisis, Iran might keep airports partially open, or a closure could happen and end quickly before a given deadline. The July deadline is very close, raising the stakes on timing. The market already prices the December date at 83%, reflecting serious but not certain expectations — the main open question is when, and whether it meets the exact threshold.

The odds right now

• December 3181%
• August 3168%
• July 3160%
• July 1556%
• June 3045%
• June 1532%
• June 1330%
• June 1429%
• June 1221%
• June 1114%
• June 1011%
• June 90%

Price history

How this resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between June 9, 2026, 3:00 PM ET and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN). Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.

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