Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 11?

What you need to know

This market is asking: how cool will Hong Kong get overnight on June 11, 2026 — specifically, what will the single lowest temperature reading be that day? The three options are buckets: around 25°C (roughly 77°F), 24°C (75°F), or 23°C (73°F). A 'Yes' on 25°C means the coolest moment of that day stays in the mid-to-upper 25s Celsius; lower options win if the temperature dips a degree or two further. After June 11, 2026 passes, the Hong Kong Observatory publishes an official daily climate record listing the absolute minimum temperature for that day. Whatever bucket that number falls into — 25°C, 24°C, or 23°C — is the winner. The number is measured to one decimal place (like 24.7°C), and only the first published reading counts; any later corrections are ignored. The market cannot settle until that official data is published. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of development that would matter here is a seasonal weather forecast for Hong Kong in early June 2026 — for example, whether La Niña or El Niño conditions are expected to push temperatures warmer or cooler than average around that time. June is early summer in Hong Kong — warm and humid — which is why the market prices 25°C at 91%. The real uncertainty is small but real: a stronger-than-usual overnight breeze, an unexpected rainstorm, or slightly unusual circulation patterns could nudge the low down a degree. Weather a year out is genuinely hard to pin down precisely. The honest summary is that the market sees 25°C as very likely, but a one-degree miss is not impossible.

The odds right now

• 25°C98%
• 24°C2%
• 23°C1%
• 29°C0%
• 21°C or below0%
• 22°C0%
• 26°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C or higher0%
• 27°C0%
• 28°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 11, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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