Lowest temperature in Shanghai on June 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on the night and morning of June 15, 2026, what will the coldest recorded temperature be at Shanghai's Pudong Airport? The options are 20°C, 21°C, or 22°C — all fairly warm, since mid-June in Shanghai is early summer. A 'Yes' on 22°C means the overnight low stays relatively warm; a 'Yes' on 20°C means the morning dips a bit cooler than expected for that time of year. The market settles based on the single lowest temperature reading recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on June 15, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website. The temperature is rounded to a whole number in Celsius — no decimals. The result is locked in once the first data point for June 16 appears on that site. Any late corrections to the June 15 data are only counted if they happen before that June 16 reading is published. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. For a weather market like this, what would matter most is a seasonal forecast for Shanghai in mid-June 2026, or any climate pattern signals (like an unusual La Niña or El Niño effect) that might shift typical early-summer temperatures up or down. Those kinds of signals would only become meaningful as the date gets closer. Weather a year out is genuinely hard to predict — even professional forecasters can't reliably call a specific overnight low more than about two weeks ahead. The market currently leans toward 22°C, but 21°C still holds 30% of the probability, reflecting real uncertainty. Shanghai's June nights can vary depending on cloud cover, wind direction, and passing weather systems. A single rain event or an early summer cold trough could easily push the low a degree or two cooler than the seasonal average.

The odds right now

• 22°C92%
• 21°C5%
• 20°C1%
• 19°C0%
• 23°C0%
• 18°C0%
• 17°C or below0%
• 24°C0%
• 25°C0%
• 26°C0%
• 27°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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