Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by...?

What you need to know

This market asks whether Giorgia Meloni will stop being Italy's Prime Minister before the end of 2026. A 'Yes' means she leaves the job — through resignation, losing a confidence vote in parliament, or any other reason — at any point before the deadline. A 'No' means she stays in office the whole time. There are two separate deadlines being tracked: one on July 31, 2026 (currently priced at 2%), and one on December 31, 2026 (currently priced at 20%). The market settles 'Yes' the moment Meloni stops being Prime Minister — or even just announces she will leave — before the relevant deadline. That means an announcement alone is enough to trigger a 'Yes', even if she technically stays in the role a few days longer while a new government forms. The source is the Italian government or a clear consensus of major news outlets. If she is still Prime Minister when each deadline passes, that version of the market settles 'No'. None of the provided recent news is relevant to this market — the headlines all relate to Indian politics and a separate geopolitical story. There is no recent reporting here about Meloni, the Italian government, or any political developments in Italy. The kind of news that would matter here would be: a collapse of her coalition, a major parliamentary defeat, or any public signal from Meloni herself about her future. Italian coalition governments have historically been fragile, but Meloni has so far shown more staying power than many predecessors. The main sources of uncertainty are coalition tensions, a possible confidence vote failing, or an unexpected political crisis. The July 31 deadline is priced very low at 2%, reflecting that the market sees her exit in the next few weeks as quite unlikely. The longer December 31 window is priced at 20%, meaning the market sees it as possible but not the expected outcome — the honest uncertainty is whether something unforeseen disrupts a government that currently appears stable.

The odds right now

• December 31+18.0 pts (1w)25%
• July 31+1.2 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.