Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Miguel Díaz-Canel will lose his grip on Cuba's top job before a specific date. Díaz-Canel holds two key titles: President of Cuba and First Secretary of the Communist Party — the second one being the real seat of power in Cuba's political system. A 'Yes' means he is gone from that role by the deadline, for any reason. A 'No' means he is still in place. The market settles 'Yes' the moment Díaz-Canel stops holding Cuba's top political post — whether through resignation, removal, detention, or being publicly reported as unable to do the job. Importantly, if a resignation or removal is simply announced before the deadline, that counts immediately, even if it hasn't fully taken effect yet. There are two deadlines with separate odds: December 31, 2025 and June 30, 2026. Official Cuban government statements or a consensus of credible news reporting would be used to confirm the outcome. None of the provided recent headlines relate to Cuba or Díaz-Canel in any way. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kinds of developments worth watching for would be signs of political instability inside Cuba, major protests, shifts in Communist Party leadership, or any credible reports about Díaz-Canel's health or political standing. Cuba's government is deeply opaque — leadership changes, when they happen, are rarely telegraphed in advance, which makes this genuinely hard to call. That said, the market prices the December deadline at 56% and the June 2026 deadline at only 10%, suggesting traders see meaningful near-term risk but much less certainty beyond that. The main honest uncertainty is that Cuban politics rarely plays out publicly, so a change could happen suddenly or not at all — and outside observers have limited visibility into what is actually happening inside the government.

The odds right now

• December 31-3.5 pts (1w)56%
• June 30-2.0 pts (1w)9%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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