Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Mohammed bin Salman — the man who currently runs Saudi Arabia in practice, often called MBS — will lose power before the end of 2026. A Yes means he is gone from leadership for any reason: death, removal, forced resignation, a coup, a health crisis that permanently sidelines him. A No means he is still in charge when the deadline passes. MBS is technically Crown Prince, but he is widely understood to be the country's real decision-maker. The market settles Yes the moment MBS stops being Saudi Arabia's leader — whether through a formal announcement, a credible news consensus, or clear evidence he has been removed or permanently prevented from doing his job. Even an announcement counts immediately, before any transition actually happens. If none of that occurs before December 31, 2026, it resolves No. The key phrase is 'for any period of time,' meaning even a temporary removal would count if confirmed. None of the provided news directly concerns MBS's position or stability. One headline mentions Senator Lindsey Graham's role in a Saudi-Israel normalization effort, which shows Saudi diplomacy is active, but nothing in the headlines suggests any challenge to MBS's leadership. There is no notable recent news to point to here. The kind of development that would matter would be reports of a serious health event, a royal family power struggle, or a major political crisis inside Saudi Arabia. The market is priced at just 4%, meaning the crowd sees this as very unlikely — and that matches the general picture of MBS having consolidated power firmly over recent years. The real uncertainty is simply the small but non-zero chance of something unexpected: a sudden health event, an internal royal family challenge, or a dramatic geopolitical crisis. Saudi succession politics are opaque by design, so outsiders have limited visibility. The honest question is not whether two equal sides exist — they don't — but whether a low-probability surprise occurs.

The odds right now

• December 31-0.1 pts (1w)4%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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