Next French Presidential Election

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple question: who will be the next President of France? The election is expected in April 2027, and the market is tracking several possible winners. A 'Yes' for any named candidate means that person wins the presidency. Right now, Marine Le Pen (far-right nationalist) and Édouard Philippe (center-right, former Prime Minister under Macron) are tied as the leading possibilities at 28% each, with Jean-Luc Mélenchon (far-left) at 12%, and the remaining roughly 32% spread across everyone else. This market settles — 'resolves' — by declaring the winner of the French presidential election as confirmed by credible news reporting, with the official French Ministry of the Interior as the final authority if there's any dispute. France uses a two-round system: if no one gets over 50% in round one, the top two face each other in a runoff, and the runoff winner is what counts here. The deadline for a result is December 31, 2027 — if for any reason no winner is confirmed by then, the market settles as 'Other.' None of the provided news headlines relate to the French presidential election or French politics in any meaningful way. If you want to follow this market, the kinds of developments worth watching are: any change in Marine Le Pen's legal situation (she faces a conviction that could affect her eligibility), shifts in French polling, and whether current President Macron's term triggers an early election for any reason. Two years is a long time in politics, and French elections are genuinely hard to forecast this far out. The two frontrunners are tied, which already signals real uncertainty. Marine Le Pen's eligibility is an open legal question — a court ruling could remove her from the race entirely. Édouard Philippe has not yet formally declared his candidacy. The field could also shift dramatically if new candidates emerge or if France's political landscape changes. The roughly 32% sitting with 'other candidates' shows the market itself isn't confident the current frontrunners will hold.

The odds right now

• Marine Le Pen+19.5 pts (1w)28%
• Édouard Philippe+3.5 pts (1w)27%
• Jean-Luc Mélenchon+2.0 pts (1w)11%
• Jordan Bardella-21.3 pts (1w)4%
• Bruno Retailleau+0.5 pts (1w)3%
• Gabriel Attal-0.4 pts (1w)3%
• François Hollande+0.3 pts (1w)3%
• Dominique de Villepin-0.7 pts (1w)2%
• Raphaël Glucksmann+0.2 pts (1w)2%
• David Lisnard-0.2 pts (1w)1%
• Sarah Knafo-0.1 pts (1w)1%
• Éric Zemmour+0.1 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves April 30, 2027

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

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