Next Prime Minister of Spain?

What you need to know

This market is asking who will be Spain's next Prime Minister — specifically, the next person to take over the job from whoever currently holds it. Pedro Sánchez is the current PM, so this is essentially a question about political change in Spain. A 'Yes' for any candidate means that person wins enough parliamentary support to form a new government and get sworn in. A 'No' for everyone, in a sense, would mean no qualifying change happens before the deadline. For this market to settle on a name, that person must do two things: win a formal confidence vote in Spain's Congress of Deputies (the lower house of parliament), and then be officially sworn in as Prime Minister. Simply being a caretaker or acting PM doesn't count — the parliamentary vote is required. If nobody clears both hurdles by March 31, 2028, the market resolves as 'Other,' which is the catch-all outcome for unexpected results or prolonged political deadlock. None of the recent headlines provided relate to Spanish politics or any development that would affect this market. No relevant news to point to here. What would matter to watch for: any Spanish election announcement, a no-confidence vote against Sánchez, or signs of coalition negotiations breaking down or forming. Spain's parliament is fragmented, meaning no single party usually has a majority on its own — governing requires assembling a coalition of smaller parties, which is genuinely unpredictable. Feijóo leads the conservative PP party and the market prices him at 81%, reflecting expectations of political change, but Spanish coalition politics have surprised observers before. The deadline is nearly two years away, and a lot can shift: elections could be called early, coalitions could collapse, or new figures could emerge. The wide gap between candidates suggests the market has a strong lean, but not certainty.

The odds right now

• Alberto Núñez Feijóo+4.5 pts (1w)81%
• Pedro Sánchez-7.1 pts (1w)6%
• Isabel Díaz Ayuso+4.3 pts (1w)5%
• Santiago Abascal-0.7 pts (1w)2%
• Carles Puigdemont1%
• María Jesús Montero0%
• Yolanda Díaz0%
• Ernest Urtasun0%
• Aitor Esteban-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Miguel Tellado+0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Ester Muñoz0%
• Pepa Millán0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves March 31, 2028

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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