Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

What you need to know

This market is asking when the next serious, senior-level diplomatic meeting between the US and Iran will happen — and whether it starts before a specific date. The June 22 Switzerland talks were Round One; this is asking about Round Two. A 'Yes' means a new formal negotiating round, with real decision-makers from both sides, gets underway in time. A 'No' means no such meeting happens before the deadline — whether because talks collapse, get delayed, or simply aren't scheduled yet. To settle as Yes, a new formal senior-level round of US-Iran talks must begin by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. It can be indirect — both sides don't have to be in the same room — but real government-authorized senior officials from both countries must be involved in person, and the meeting must be publicly confirmed by a government or credible reporting. Crucially, purely technical or staff-level follow-on meetings from June 22 do not count on their own. There must be a new, formally convened senior round. The recent news paints a sharply deteriorating picture. As of July 12, the US and Iran are reportedly exchanging military strikes, and Iran has claimed to have closed the Strait of Hormuz — a major international waterway. An Iranian official has publicly warned that 'the era of one-sided deals is over.' These are significant escalations. Active military conflict and hardened public rhetoric are exactly the kind of developments that make scheduling new diplomatic talks much harder in the near term. The core tension here is whether two countries currently in active military confrontation can pivot quickly enough to sit back down at a negotiating table. That is genuinely hard to forecast. Military conflicts can sometimes accelerate diplomacy — pressure forces a deal — but they can also derail it entirely, especially if domestic politics on either side make talks look like weakness. The short July 17 window is priced very low at 8%, reflecting how fast that would need to happen. The July 31 window at 32% reflects real but limited optimism.

The odds right now

• July 31-45.5 pts (1w)28%
• July 17-34.0 pts (1w)5%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

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