Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that carries a huge share of the world's oil — gets back to a normal, healthy level before July 15, 2026. The number 60 is the threshold: it means that on a rolling 7-day average, at least 60 ships per day are passing through. Think of it as a busy highway returning to its usual flow after an incident had slowed it down. Yes means traffic is back to normal; No means it stayed disrupted. The market settles Yes the moment an official IMF shipping database — called Portwatch — records a 7-day average of 60 or more ship arrivals in the Strait of Hormuz for any single day up to July 15, 2026. It can resolve early if that number is hit before the deadline. If it never reaches 60 by then, it resolves No. The count only includes specific ship types (container ships, tankers, bulk carriers, etc.) as tracked by IMF Portwatch — ships that database doesn't track simply don't count, even if they physically crossed. One headline directly matters here: on June 14, 2026, Iran's Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) reportedly warned vessels against transiting the Strait of Hormuz. That kind of warning is exactly the type of event that could suppress ship traffic and push the daily count below the 60-ship threshold. The other headlines in the list — about tourism in India and trafficking survivors — are unrelated to this market. The IRGC warning is the key recent development to watch. The market is almost evenly split at 45% Yes, which honestly reflects how genuinely uncertain this is. The IRGC warning signals real tension, and geopolitical flare-ups in the region can shift quickly — either escalating further or cooling down through diplomacy. The threshold of 60 ships per day is a specific number, and we don't know exactly how far current traffic is from it. Situations involving Iran, regional security, and oil shipping can change fast and unpredictably, making this one of the harder markets to read.

The odds right now

• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?46%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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