Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by...?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Hungary's current president, Tamás Sulyok, will leave office — for any reason — before the end of July 2026. A Yes means he resigns, is removed, or otherwise stops being president at any point before the deadline. A No means he remains in his role the whole time. It is not asking whether he is a good or bad president — just whether he holds the job. The market settles Yes the moment Sulyok either leaves office or formally announces he will leave — whichever comes first. Even if he announces a future resignation date, that announcement alone triggers Yes immediately. If he is still president on July 31, 2026 at midnight, it settles No. One important edge case: it only takes a brief gap in his presidency — even a temporary removal — to count as Yes. The decision is based on official Hungarian government sources or a clear consensus of reliable news outlets. None of the recent news provided relates to Tamás Sulyok or Hungarian politics. There is no relevant recent reporting to draw on here. The kind of news that would matter: any Hungarian government announcement, parliamentary vote on the presidency, or credible reporting about Sulyok's intentions or political pressure on him. The market prices this at 79% — meaning participants collectively lean toward Yes, but that is a strong lean, not a certainty. What makes this hard to call is that presidential departures are often sudden and politically unpredictable, especially in systems where the ruling party has significant influence. We do not have recent news explaining why the odds are this high — which itself is a gap. Without knowing what event or signal drove that number up, it is difficult to fully assess whether the pressure on Sulyok is real and imminent or still speculative.

The odds right now

• July 31+3.0 pts (1w)86%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tamas Sulyok ceases to be the President of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Sulyok's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Tamas Sulyok and the Hungarian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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