Trump out as President by July 31?

What you need to know

This market asks one simple question: will Donald Trump stop being President before July 31, 2026? A 'Yes' means he left office early — through resignation, death, or being formally removed. A 'No' means he is still President when the deadline passes. This is not asking whether he becomes unpopular or faces legal trouble — only whether he actually leaves the office itself. The market settles 'Yes' the moment a credible announcement confirms Trump has permanently left office — whether by resigning, dying, or being removed through a successful impeachment trial or a special constitutional process called the 25th Amendment (where the Vice President, Cabinet, and two-thirds of both houses of Congress together declare him unable to serve). Importantly, a temporary transfer of power — like a brief medical procedure — does not count. Only a permanent departure does. The provided news is about the death of Senator Lindsey Graham on July 12, 2026, a close political ally of Trump. Trump ordered flags flown at half-mast in tribute. There is nothing in these headlines suggesting any change in Trump's own status as President. No relevant news pointing toward a resignation or removal was provided. At 1%, the market is about as lopsided as markets get — participants collectively see this outcome as extremely unlikely. The honest uncertainty here is not 'will it happen or not' in a balanced way; it is simply whether something genuinely unexpected and historically rare occurs in the next few weeks. No US president has ever been removed by the 25th Amendment process, and only two have ever been impeached and neither was removed. The main open question is the unknown: health emergencies, sudden crises, or events no one can foresee.

The odds right now

• Trump out as President by July 31?-0.1 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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