Trump out as President before 2027?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Prediction markets currently show a small but non-negligible volume of trading on Donald Trump leaving the presidency before the end of 2026, with the 'Yes' outcome representing a minority position. The market resolves 'Yes' if Trump permanently ceases to be President — through resignation, removal, or a sustained Twenty-Fifth Amendment invocation — by 31 December 2026. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Market structure

This is a binary market with two outcomes: 'Yes' (Trump permanently leaves office before 2027) and 'No' (he remains President through 31 December 2026). Volume is heavily concentrated on the 'No' outcome. Temporary removal mechanisms, such as a Section 3 or unsustained Section 4 Twenty-Fifth Amendment invocation, or impeachment without Senate conviction, do not trigger 'Yes' resolution. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting.

Background

Donald Trump began his second term as President in January 2025 following his victory in the November 2024 presidential election. This market asks whether his tenure will end before 2027, covering scenarios including resignation, death, impeachment and Senate conviction, or a sustained Twenty-Fifth Amendment process. The constitutional mechanisms for removing a sitting president are deliberately demanding: Senate conviction on impeachment requires a two-thirds supermajority, and a sustained Section 4 Twenty-Fifth Amendment removal likewise requires two-thirds support from both Houses of Congress. No sitting US president has ever been removed from office by impeachment conviction, and only one — Richard Nixon in 1974 — has resigned. The market therefore reflects the historically rare nature of mid-term presidential departure, while acknowledging that the possibility cannot be entirely discounted across a roughly two-year window.

Key factors

Several structural factors bear on this market. Impeachment proceedings in the House require only a simple majority, but Senate conviction requires a two-thirds vote — a threshold that has never been met in US history. The current partisan composition of Congress is a key variable, as any removal scenario via impeachment would require substantial cross-party support. A Twenty-Fifth Amendment Section 4 removal is an even higher bar, requiring the Vice President, a majority of the Cabinet, and then two-thirds of both Houses of Congress to act against the President. Resignation is entirely at the President's discretion and historically unprecedented in any context other than imminent conviction. Health developments could become relevant given the President's age. Legal proceedings, though numerous in recent years, do not directly trigger any resolution mechanism in this market. The two-year window through December 2026 extends the exposure period compared with shorter-duration markets, marginally broadening the set of contingencies that could plausibly materialise.

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