Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

What you need to know

This market asks whether Tyler Robinson will be found guilty of a homicide crime in a Utah criminal case — specifically the case involving the death of Charlie Kirk (not the public figure of that name; this refers to a separate individual in Utah). A Yes means a court convicts him of murder, manslaughter, or another homicide offense. A No means he is acquitted, the case is dismissed, a plea deal without a guilty admission is reached, or a conviction simply doesn't happen before the deadline. The market settles Yes only if a court formally convicts Tyler Robinson of any criminal homicide offense by July 31, 2027. The conviction must come from the specific Utah case listed. A plea deal without an admission of guilt counts as No. A dismissal counts as No. A mistrial keeps the market open, but if no conviction arrives by July 31, 2027, it resolves No. Appeals after the initial verdict don't count — only the first judgment matters. No recent news about this specific case was provided. The kind of developments worth watching for would be: a trial date being set, motions to dismiss or change the charges, plea negotiations becoming public, or any pretrial rulings that might affect what charges go to a jury. The market is nearly split at 46% Yes, reflecting genuine uncertainty. Criminal trials are hard to predict — jury decisions can surprise even experienced lawyers. The outcome depends on evidence that isn't yet public, how the defense is built, whether charges are modified, and whether the case even reaches a verdict before the July 2027 deadline. Delays, mistrials, or a late plea deal could all push this to No regardless of the underlying facts of the case.

The odds right now

• Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?-2.0 pts (1w)46%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

Tyler Robinson has been charged with Aggravated Murder by The State of Utah for the death of Charlie Kirk. You can read more about that here: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No". If this specific charge is dropped, or otherwise changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense (https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html), this market will immediately resolve to "No". If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open until the resolution date (July 31) to consider further retrials. If a homicide conviction has not been rendered by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.

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