US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether the US will officially call off its naval blockade of Iran before a specific date. The blockade means US naval forces are stopping and blocking ships connected to Iran — either Iranian-flagged vessels or ships doing business with Iran — from moving freely. A Yes means the US makes an official announcement that it is ending or suspending that blockade. A No means no such announcement happens before the deadline, and the blockade stays in place (or at least is never formally called off). This market settles Yes the moment a senior US official — the President, the Pentagon, the State Department, or CENTCOM — makes a clear, public, official statement that the blockade is over, suspended, or will not go into effect. The statement must be definitive and made through official channels, not a leak or a rumor. Partial moves don't count: exempting one ship or one port would not qualify. Importantly, if a qualifying announcement is made and then reversed, the market still resolves Yes — it tracks the announcement, not whether the blockade actually ends in practice. The final deadline is August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The news from July 14, 2026 shows the blockade is very fresh and active. Trump announced the blockade on July 13, and reports indicate it resumed operations the very next day. On the same day, Iranian missiles reportedly struck oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, killing at least one sailor. These events suggest the situation escalated quickly and is still unfolding, making the near-term picture quite tense. The core difficulty is that this is a very fast-moving geopolitical situation with no obvious endpoint in sight. The blockade was announced and activated within 24 hours, and there are already reports of Iranian missile strikes on tankers — which could push things in almost any direction: deeper confrontation, urgent diplomacy, or something in between. The market's spread across three dates (20% by July 31, rising to 54% by August 31) reflects genuine uncertainty about the pace of any potential resolution, not just whether one happens at all.

The odds right now

• August 3164%
• August 1543%
• July 3118%
• July 2410%
• July 141%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

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