US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

What you need to know

This market asks whether the United States will physically take hold of uranium that Iran had enriched — meaning actually have it in hand, not just sign a deal about it. Enriched uranium is nuclear fuel that has been processed to increase its potency; Iran has accumulated a significant stockpile. A Yes means US personnel somewhere in the world are literally holding Iranian nuclear material. A No means that didn't happen by the deadline, whatever diplomacy or conflict may have occurred. This market resolves Yes only if the US physically possesses Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, 2026 — a deadline that has already passed based on the news provided, suggesting this specific tranche has likely already resolved No. The key rule: a signed agreement or announced deal does not count, only actual physical custody. It can happen through negotiation or seizure. An official US government announcement confirms it, but widespread credible reporting would also be enough even without a formal statement. The provided news from July 2026 shows active US military strikes on Iranian targets and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz — a major escalation in the US-Iran relationship. This context matters for the broader set of related markets (with later deadlines like September and December 2026), as military conflict could theoretically lead to seizure of Iranian nuclear material. However, none of the headlines report actual US possession of Iranian uranium. The core difficulty is that this scenario — the US physically holding Iranian enriched uranium — would be historically unprecedented and geopolitically explosive. It could only happen through a negotiated handover (which requires Iran's agreement) or military seizure (which would require controlling a heavily guarded nuclear site). Both paths face enormous obstacles. The market prices even the December 2026 version at only 12%, reflecting how rare and difficult such an outcome would be, even amid active military conflict.

The odds right now

• December 31-1.0 pts (1w)12%
• September 30+2.0 pts (1w)7%
• July 31+0.1 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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