US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether the US will reverse course and restore permission for Iranian oil to be sold — after revoking that permission on July 7, 2026. Until July 7, a special US government waiver called 'General License X' allowed Iranian oil sales to happen without triggering American penalties. That waiver was cancelled. A 'Yes' here means the US creates a new waiver or equivalent permission before the chosen deadline. A 'No' means the ban stays in place with no new relief issued. This resolves 'Yes' the moment the US federal government officially issues any new waiver, license, or formal relief that lifts — even partially or temporarily — its penalties on Iranian oil, petrochemical, or petroleum sales. The deadline options are July 31 or August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. One important edge case: if the US simply extends the 'wind-down period' (a grace period for existing sales to wrap up), that does not count. A genuinely new relief action is required. Official US government documents are the deciding source. The recent news points strongly away from a quick reversal. As of mid-July 2026, there are reports of Iranian missile and drone attacks intercepted by Bahrain, Saudi airstrikes connected to an Iranian plane incident, and President Trump warning Iran about the Strait of Hormuz. A headline explicitly notes a US-Iran ceasefire is growing 'more distant.' This backdrop of active military tension makes it harder to picture the US quickly reissuing oil-sales relief — though geopolitical situations can shift rapidly. The core difficulty is that this depends entirely on diplomatic and military dynamics that are fast-moving and unpredictable. Right now the news signals escalation, not negotiation — but US-Iran relations have reversed direction before, sometimes quickly. A nuclear deal, back-channel agreement, or strategic shift in US policy could change the picture fast. The market currently prices the August 31 deadline at 45% and July 31 at 19%, reflecting real uncertainty in both directions. The main unknown is simply whether a diplomatic opening emerges before the deadlines.

The odds right now

• August 3129%
• July 3113%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part. Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify. Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify. Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.

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