What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
What you need to know
This market asks whether the US Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate will touch a specific level — either 4.25%, 3.25%, or 4.5% — at any point before the end of 2026. The Fed's rate is the most important interest rate in the US economy: when it rises, borrowing money gets more expensive everywhere; when it falls, it gets cheaper. Right now there are three separate Yes/No questions running — one for each of those three rate levels — and you can think of each as asking: 'Will the Fed raise or cut rates enough to reach this number?' Each sub-market settles Yes if the Fed's official target range touches that specific number — even just one of the two boundaries of the range counts — before December 31, 2026 at 12:59 PM Eastern Time. If it never reaches that level, it settles No. The Federal Reserve's own website is the official source. One important detail: emergency rate moves between scheduled meetings count too, so an unexpected crisis cut or hike would still trigger resolution. None of the provided news headlines relate to the US Federal Reserve or its interest rate decisions. The stories cover a mining company, a software project, and India's central bank — not the Fed. To track this market, the things worth watching are FOMC meeting announcements, US inflation data, and any signals from Fed officials about where rates are heading. The Fed's rate path depends on forces that are genuinely hard to forecast: inflation trends, job market shifts, economic slowdowns, and unexpected global events. The market currently prices the 4.25% outcome at 22% and 3.25% at 17% — so neither a meaningful cut nor a hold at current levels is seen as a sure thing. The two-year timeframe adds more uncertainty, since a lot can change. Emergency cuts or hikes, which are rare but real, add another unpredictable variable.
The odds right now
- ↑ 4.25%+7.5 pts (1w)22%
- ↓ 3.25%+2.0 pts (1w)17%
- ↑ 4.5%-1.0 pts (1w)7%
- ↑ 4.75%5%
- ↓ 1.5%5%
- ↓ 1.75%5%
- ↓ 2.25%5%
- ↓ 3.0%-1.0 pts (1w)5%
- ↓ 0.25%-0.5 pts (1w)4%
- ↓ 0.5%-0.7 pts (1w)4%
- ↓ 1.0%-0.8 pts (1w)4%
- ↓ 2.0%-0.7 pts (1w)4%
Price history
↑ 4.25%
How this resolves
Resolves December 31, 2026
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Related
Other outcomes in this market
- ↑ 4.25%22%
- ↓ 3.25%17%
- ↑ 4.5%7%
- ↑ 4.75%5%
- ↓ 1.5%5%
- ↓ 1.75%5%
- ↓ 2.25%5%
- ↓ 3.0%5%
- See all 20 outcomes →
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